Pakistan Rice Exports are all set to mark a new high amid in FY2023-2024. Weak domestic demand, favorable weather conditions, a bumper crop, and record international market prices, contributing to the likelihood of Pakistan achieving record rice exports.

Although in FY2022-23, the export volume of rice hit a decade-low at 3.6 million metric tons for all rice varieties, export earnings during the same period were the second highest, trailing just 14 percent below the previous year’s peak. The Export price of rice increased by up to 20 percent during FY23, marking an increase of $90 per metric ton over previous year. Despite severe monsoon floods and crop damage, Pakistan’s export revenue remained robust. In the last fiscal year, Pakistan earned $2.2 billion from rice exports, faring significantly better than other export sectors like textiles and garments, which saw a 20 percent decline in earnings during the same period.

Rice production is expected to surge by 64 percent compared to the previous year, driven partly by a low base effect that restores 3.5 million metric tons of lost output to the national supply. This additional output, bringing domestic production back up to 9 million metric tons, is poised to primarily target the export market, potentially adding a billion dollars to the industry’s export earnings.

Average export prices have already risen by $100 per metric ton on average during the first two months of FY24 (Jul-Aug 2023). The average price of exports now exceeds $700 per metric ton. This represents a 16 percent increase over the full-year average price of $600 per metric ton and a 40 percent boost compared to the last three-year average export price of around $500 per metric ton.

The upswing in world rice prices comes amid India banning the export of non-basmati milled rice due to tight domestic supply conditions.

India’s ban has had a profound impact on global rice prices, which have now reached their highest levels in 15 years and could potentially surpass its previous peak. Given these conditions, it appears likely that Pakistani exporters will achieve record profits, offering the industry a realistic chance of reaching $3 billion in export revenue for the first time.

On the flip side, Domestic retail Prices for most rice varieties have increased by up to 150 percent. This is likely to add $1 billion in additional Exports revenue.

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